2019 will be a watershed, many gladiators will be demystified. It could be Buhari. It could be Obasanjo or Bukola Saraki. It could be some other small masquerades pretending somewhere.
Hail or wail, Buhari has raised the stakes. But the assertion that he wins up to 12million votes at most elections in the north, under any platform, comes under threat.
Security is key. While northeast calmed down, northcentral boiled. Kaduna and Zamfara have got no respite. If the General failed, will the people of the north trust a “bloody civilian” to do better?
Other factors are agriculture and infrastructure. If agriculture is booming in the north as Audu Ogbeh makes us to believe, if infrastructure booms as Fashola and Amaechi claim it has, with rails and roads in the north, even dams and irrigations, and with the incumbency factor, 12million votes could swell.
OBJ is believed by many to have installed Yar’adua, Jonathan and even Buhari. They believe OBJ determines who wins in 2019. That OBJs ADC counted for nothing in Ekiti election and poses insignificant threat in upcoming Osun election does little to persuade his ardent followers. 2019 poses a bigger headache for OBJ than the previous elections, the stakes are higher.
The Sarakis are in for the renewed battle of the Sarakis. Kwara is the battle ground. The gladiators are late Olusola, Bukola and Gbemisola. Bukola Saraki holds the longer end of the stick. He has money and he has Ahmed, the governor.
He has the ghost of 33 people, including policemen and a pregnant woman, killed by his thieving thugs to contend with. The spirit of Olusola, his father, may be unforgiving. Bukola, like Fayose, may face opponents who could give as much as they absolve come 2019.
There are other lesser masquerades whose action or inaction could make or mar any postulation.
PDP now has Atiku, Kwankwaso as prominent presidential aspirants. Can these men really knock Buhari of his perch in the north? Can OBJ honestly work with Atiku and vice versa? Will Kwankwaso decamp to ADC if Atiku wins PDPs ticket? Will ADC allow itself fused into PDP? Many questions begging for answers.
These events are unfolding. But one man holds the key, Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The Jagaban of Nigerian politics. The Asiwaju of yorubaland. He is the catalyst, he brings about the chemical reaction without being consumed in the process.
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