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ANALYSING KANO POLITICS AND WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2019

Aminu Sarki from Kano wrote that
When late Abubakar Rimi dumped PRP led by late Mallam Aminu Kano, and joined NPP of Nnamdi Azikiwe I told a friend that he (Rimi) will never win the 1983 election for a second tenure as Governor of Kano State. My reason was, even though Rimi was popular, well educated and charismatic by nature the masses love for Aminu Kano, who had good track records both as a politician and a public servant under Gowon’s regime, influenced the acceptance of Abubakar Rimi by Kano people and Nigeria at large. Senator Sabo Bakin-Zuwo, a lower educated local champion beat Rimi and was elected under Aminu Kano’s PRP as Kano State Governor. Time was also against Rimi to mobilize the masses to ignore the Key as PRP’s well promoted logo they identified with.
When Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso dumped PDP at the time Goodluck Jonathan lost popularity as President under the party and joined APC, he took a wise decision. He was able then to assess the growing popularity of the merger of many parties to fight against PDP at the 2015 polls. He knew that the merger became possible because Buhari, who has excellent track records as Minister of Petroleum, Military Head of Sate and PTF Chairman, was dragged into it. Rabiu planned for himself to vie for President under the Umbrella of APC. He was also clever to reserve for himself a Senatorial seat by supporting his own brother in law to run for the seat only to hand it over to him in case he lost Presidential Primary, which was what happened. Having wasted his time engineering frictions withing the APC in Kano and virtually did nothing tangible to Kano people as Senator, Kwankwaso knows that he will not be allowed to once again contest for Kano Central Senetorial seat. His relationship with the sitting Governor Umar Ganduje, and Kano APC leadership is sower. He is aware that he needs total support from Kano delegates to once again go for Presidential Primary election in APC, if at all the Party decides to do so, which I doubt very much. And as twice a governor himself, he is aware of how governors influence delegates in their states so he cannot underestimate the power of Ganduje. The only alternative for him is to dump the party to return to PDP along with many others. But *mark my words* , Kwankwaso fails himself by being greedy.

Another power greedy, if not the most power greedy person Nigeria ever had among politicians is Atiku Abukar. This man from Adamawa who bullied his boss when he was Vice President to Obasanjo because the Boss was not ready to hand over the key to Aso Villa to him at the end of his tenure, dumped PDP and created another party, which later merged with others to form the All Progressive Congress (APC). He lost at the Primary election that in Lagos that gave Buhari the ticket to stand for the party at the 2015 general election that made Buhari President. When he realized that PMB was serious about fighting corruption and is afraid of the bars. So he dumped APC and returned to PDP. Ahead of Kwankwaso, who topped him at the APC presidential primaries, the Turakin Adamawa has already declared his intention to grab PDP”s ticket to 2019 Presidential election. Kwankwaso will surely not step-down for him because he is serious this time around no matter the resources Atiku will use to get that ticket. So it will be a tag of war within PDP especially if one considers that for Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, former Governor Makarfi and many others are eying the same opportunity in PDP. For Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, the coming in of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso into PDP should be best described as catching a rat rather than big fish. And this rat is infected with Lasa fever. So it must be dealt with before it infect others in the party and spoil the soup for Shekarau who will now be faced with divided house win regard to loyalty of potential PDP Kano delegates that will have many Kwankwasiya supporters among them. Again, *mark my words* , they fight a war they will never win.
Senator Makarfi, who is also ex governor of Kaduna State and who narrowly missed to take over from Obasanjo as President, worked hard to keep PDP alive and redeemed the party from total collapse in the bloody hands of Ali Madu Sharif, is also aspiring for the nation’s highest political position under the platform of PDP. Many in the party respect him for his resilience and humbleness and would prefer him against Sule Lamido who still has pending case of corruption and will definitely take the party anywhere. So virtually the PDP as it is, or as it may be rebranded is like an overcrowded makeshift board that is sailing in the direction of rocks amidst stormy weather.
Please save this post and mark my words, Muhammadu Buhari will win again in 2019.

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